BEST AND WORST PICKS OF THE 2023 NFL DRAFT

The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books. With so much time between now and the start of the season, what else is there to do but break down and analyze the results. Here we will break down the five best and five worst picks of the NFL Draft. This isn’t just about how good a prospect is projected to be, this is about the talent & potential of the player, the position, how well he fits his new team’s needs, and the value of the draft pick used.

BEST: WILL ANDERSON JR

3rd OVERALL, HOUSTON TEXANS | EDGE | ALABAMA

After the Carolina Panthers predictably took Alabama’s Bryce Young with the first pick of the draft, Houston took Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second pick. Young and Stroud were expected to go one & two, the question was what Arizona would do at number three. With speculation ramped that a team would trade up for either Anthony Richardson or Will Levis, the two best QBs remaining, Houston shocked the world by trading back up to number three and selecting Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson.

This was the best possible outcome for Houston, as they land arguably the best prospect in the entire draft. Alabama has been an NFL star factory for the better part of this century, and Anderson is an absolute unit. Houston has struggled on defense ever since the departure of franchise player J.J. Watt in 2020, now they have a suitable replacement. This works out well because the Texans already took their QB of the future before trading the second of their two first round picks, along with a second round pick, and 2024 first and third rounders to move back up for Anderson.

Some may say that this was too steep a price, and some may say that they should have taken a top tier pass catcher to pair with their young QB. After DeMeco Ryans was named head coach of the Houston Texans it became apparent to me that the defensive minded coach would target a pass rusher for the abysmal defense he inherited. Some may question giving up a first round pick in next year’s draft given that this rebuild is just getting started, but thanks to the infamous Deshaun Watson trade Houston still has a first round selection in 2024. The Watson trade signaled a paradigm shift in the NFL, and has allowed this destiny altering pick to happen.

WORST: EMMANUEL FORBES

16TH OVERALL, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS | DB | MISSISSIPPI STATE

This pick is beyond baffling. The Seattle Seahawks made Devon Witherspoon the first DB selected in the draft, leaving many to wonder where Christian Gonzalez would land. While Witherspoon and Gonzalez were the consensus top two at the position, Washington decided to make a selection out of left field just as they had when they selected their new team name. Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes was not high on many draft boards, and certainly was not on the level of Gonzalez, who was still available when Washington made their pick.

Forbes recorded 14 interceptions during his collegiate career, including six returned for touchdowns. His 6 pick-sixes tied UAB’s Glenn Coleman for the NCAA career record (notably Coleman scored all of his in one season in 1996). But as any Run-and-Shoot quarterback will tell you, gaudy numbers doesn’t always translate to success in the pros. While Forbes is an established ball hawk, he comes with many red flags.

Forbes sports a rather delicate frame, weighing in at only 166 lbs. Good luck arm-tackling A.J. Brown. His footwork is also a liability, and he gets shaken off easily by shifty receivers. This wouldn’t be such an egregious pick if Gonzalez weren’t still there for the taking.

BEST: JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA

20TH OVERALL, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS | WR | OHIO STATE

Despite being the first receiver off the board, Jaxon Smith-Njigba fell in the draft. He is a top 10 talent, taken 20th overall by Seattle. This was an outstanding selection for Seattle, who just signed on for three more years of Geno Smith at quarterback. The 2022 Comeback Player of the Year has enjoyed a career resurgence in Seattle, and the best thing the team can do is maintain a stable environment around the above average passer. Seattle has always had a steady run game, now they add the six-foot Ohio State product to a receiving corps that already includes genetic freak D.K. Metcalf, and speedster Tyler Lockett.

Kansas City and Cincinnati have shown that in this age of the NFL there’s no such thing as too many weapons on offense. Make no mistake, Smith-Njigba is a weapon. In 2021 he recorded 95 receptions for 1,606 yards and 9 touchdowns. He was the leading receiver on an Ohio State team that consisted of Garrett Wilson (‘22 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year), Chris Olave, and Marvin Harrison Jr.

Smith-Njigba had a historic showcase in the Rose Bowl on January 1, 2022, catching 15 passes for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns en route to leading the Buckeyes to a 48-45 come from behind victory over Utah. He only played in three games in 2022, sitting out the rest of the season due to injury, causing him to slip down draft boards. The Green Bay Packers and New York Jets definitely could have used a stud receiver like Smith-Njigba, but both teams took players on defense, allowing Seattle to bolster their team with the biggest gem of the first round. Geno’s renaissance looks to be far from over.

WORST: JACK CAMPBELL

18TH OVERALL, DETROIT LIONS | LB | IOWA

This was one of the most questionable selections in the entire draft. Jack Campbell must be related to Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell, its the only way to make this make sense. Detroit had two picks in the first round thanks to trading Matthew Stafford to LA in 2021. In an equally shocking move, Detroit used the 12th pick on Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, an ode to Dan Campbell’s affinity for old school smash mouth football. The Lions were expected to go defense with the 18th pick, but it seemed that they would look to bolster the defensive line or the secondary…not the middle of the field.

Jack Campbell was not a name being mentioned in many (if any) first round mocks. Alex Anzalone and Malcolm Rodriguez made a solid pair of ankle-biters in 2022, along with the unheralded James Houston IV. Anzalone has been an NFL mainstay for years. Rodriguez, affectively known as Rodrigo, was a sixth round rookie whose play style commanded a starting role. Houston IV was an undrafted rookie who had bounced on and off the Lions roster and only played in seven games, but quietly racked up 8 sacks (second most on the team). Detroit seemed to be set at linebacker, what they needed was an edge rusher to pair up with 2022 2nd overall pick Aidan Hutchinson.

Jack Campbell compiled 120 tackles, a sack, and two interceptions in his final year at Iowa. Nothing about him really screams “transcending talent”, “can’t miss prospect”, and he certainly wasn’t a positional need.

BEST: MICHAEL MAYER

35TH OVERALL, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS | TE | NOTRE DAME

I love the Raiders selection of Michael Mayer at the top of the second round. I call him Michael Meyers because he is scary good. The 2022 Consensus All-American is 6’4” and bulked up to 265 lbs. He caught 67 passes for 809 yards and 9 touchdowns in his final season at Notre Dame. Throughout the draft process I believed Mayer to be the best tight end, hands down. Mayer would end up being the third tight end taken, behind Dalton Kincaid and (for reasons known only to Iowa enthusiast Dan Campbell) Sam LaPorta.

It’s odd to praise a Raiders draft selection given how historically bad the franchise has been at drafting. During the offseason the Raiders traded Darren Waller to the New York Giants for a third round draft pick. The move was a bit surprising given Waller’s high level of play since transitioning from receiver to tight end in 2019. The Raiders now fill the hole left by Waller with a younger and cheaper alternative.

The Raiders are prepared for a new era of black and silver football, and Mayer will be a great building block. This is one of the best value picks of the draft. The Raiders get the best tight end, a position of need, in the second round.

WORST: ZACH CHARBONNET

52ND OVERALL, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS | RB | UCLA

This pick gives me Tyrion Davis-Price vibes. In 2022 the San Francisco 49ers used a valuable third round pick on a running back (TDP) despite having an upper echelon run game with Elijah Mitchell, Jeff Wilson, Trey Sermon, and Deebo Samuel. Many people questioned the pick, a year later it is still hard to make heads or tails of it. This feels like déjà vu.

Charbonnet was not necessarily a top tier running back despite rushing for 1,359 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2022. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs were the two best running backs in the draft bar none. The gap between them and the next best running back prospect (aka Charbonnet) was staggering.

Seattle reaped the benefits of Kenneth Walker III’s breakout rookie season. With Rashaad Penny’s departure, Seattle needed another runner. But using a second round draft pick on a back up running back in this day and age seems like a stretch.  

BEST: BRIAN BRANCH

45TH OVERALL, DETROIT LIONS | S | ALABAMA

The Detroit Lions moves on day one left many people scratching their heads, but their day two selections were arguably the best of the second round. Brian Branch is a first round talent that slipped to the second round due to a lack of demand for safeties among NFL teams.

Dan Campbell wants true football players on his team. He wants fighters, ankle-biters, kneecap-gnawers, and Branch fits the build. Like fellow Alabama alum Minkah Fitzpatrick, Branch is a highly intelligent DB\S with a nose for the ball. He has good speed and exceptional strength for his size (6’0” 190 lbs).

While Branch’s coverage skills leave room for improvement, he plays well close to the line, gets into the backfield, and is a sure tackler. Detroit’s defense ranked 28th in points allowed in 2022, but with Hutchinson on the edge, Rodrigo set to make a leap in year two, Houston IV likely getting more play time, and Branch and C.J. Gardner-Johnson joining the secondary, this defense is primed to step up big time.

WORST: TUCKER KRAFT

78TH OVERALL, GREEN BAY PACKERS | TE | SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

The Green Bay Packers have officially moved on from Aaron Rodgers, handing the reigns over to 2020 26th overall pick Jordan Love. Love has only appeared in 10 games in his career, with one lone start, so it seemed that picking a top tier receiver would be the best course of action…but this is the Packers. The last time they took a receiver in the first round was 2002 (Javon Walker), so we shouldn’t have been surprised to see Iowa defensive end Lukas Van Ness go off the board at number 13.

After missing out on the flash sale at wide receiver towards the end of the first round, Green Bay used their second round picks on Oregon State tight end Luke Musgrave and Michigan State receiver Jayden Reed. There were better options at each position, but I digress. What really made no sense was Green Bay selecting South Dakota State tight end Tucker Kraft in the third round. Why did they feel the need to add another tight end?

Some of the players taken after Kraft include North Carolina receiver Josh Downs (79th overall), Auburn running back Tank Bigsby (88th overall), Alabama DB Jordan Battle (95th overall), and Georgia DB Kelee Ringo (105th overall).

BEST: HENDON HOOKER

68TH OVERALL, DETROIT LIONS | QB | TENNESSEE

Hendon Hooker was the biggest question mark at quarterback going into this year’s draft. While it was common knowledge that Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud would go 1 & 2 respectively, with Anthony Richardson and Will Levis not far behind, Hooker was an anomaly. Some believed that the signal caller’s ability coupled with the importance of the position would prompt a team to draft him as early as late first round. When Levis rightfully fell in the draft, it became apparent that it would be a long wait for Hooker as well.

I firmly believe that Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Hendon Hooker should have been the Heisman front-runner had he not gotten injured. Hooker played five years of college ball and got better and better each year. He scored 32 total touchdowns with only 2 interceptions in 2022, revitalizing Tennessee football. Most impressive was his showing against Alabama, keeping Tennessee’s undefeated record in tact as he completed 21 of 30 passes for 385 yards, with 5 touchdowns vs 1 interception.

Hooker has duel threat abilities and all the arm talent you could want from a quarterback. Unfortunately his draft stock plummeted due to an ACL tear. Reports of Hooker’s positive rehabilitation catapulted him back into the lime light just before the draft. Jared Goff had an impressive year with the Lions in 2022, but should they ever decide to move on from him it helps to have Hooker developing behind him. Should Hendon Hooker prove to be as good in the NFL as he was at Tennessee, then this will age as one of the best value picks in the entire draft.

WORST: STETSON BENNETT

128TH OVERALL, LOS ANGELES RAMS | QB | GEORGIA

Stetson Bennett divides football fans. There are those that believe he’s good, and those that believe he was carried by a great team. The 2001 Miami Hurricanes are widely regarded as the best college football team ever assembled…Ken Dorsey was their quarterback. Dorsey more often than not is the one player on that team that fans can’t seem to name, and this is what I believe is Stetson Bennett’s future.

Fact of the matter is Bennett is, was, and never has been or will be anything special. He is undersized, an average passer, and I highly question his decision making abilities given the legal trouble he has been in since winning the natty. Me personally, I would not have drafted Bennett at all, he was a 7th round talent at most. I certainly could not fathom spending a sixth or fifth round pick on him, let alone a fourth. Yet despite this, the Los Angeles Rams drafted Bennett in the fourth round, 128th overall.

Why. Why on earth would they do this? The Rams have a lot of holes to fill, and few precious picks to do it with, given that most of their picks were late round draft picks. So why spend a valuable fourth round pick on Bennett? Was a back up QB that high of a priority? And if so, why not Clayton Tune? Or Dorian Thompson-Robinson? Or even Max Duggan? Bennett will sit behind fellow Georgia alum Matthew Stafford, but I don’t see how he will help this team in any way.