RANKING THE 2024 NFL HEAD COACHING HIRES
The days of head coaches having a four year plan to rebuild a team after signing a four year contract are long gone. In the case of the Carolina Panthers under the ownership of Dave Tepper you’d better have an 18-month plan for success. Owners and pink-slip-fearing GM’s are less patient than ever. If a coach doesn’t get results from his team, then it is a full-blown fire sale in the organization, i.e. everything must go. This has been one of the most exciting coaching carousels in recent memory with the firing of Bill Belichick in New England, and the perplexing firing of Mike Vrabel in Tennessee. We are seeing some familiar faces in new places, and some new young coaches getting their first head coaching opportunity, so let’s rank the new coaching hires.
8. New England Hires Jerod Mayo
Well it is officially the end of the evil empire up north. Ever since hiring Bill Belichick in 2000, and drafting Tom Brady in 2001, the New England Patriots have gone 266-121 and won 6 Super Bowls. That’s in the past now, the franchise is in rebuild mode as they have officially parted ways with the legendary head coach. So who did the Patriots hire to replace Belichick? Did they roll the dice on a hot shot college coach? Did they identify a young prodigy in the coordinating coaching ranks throughout the league? Did they bring in a proven and experienced head coach who knows how to navigate the delicate situation the franchise finds itself in? Nope.
New England kept the coaching hire “in house” as they promoted Jerod Mayo from Linebackers Coach to Head Coach. Mayo will be the fifteenth Head Coach in the franchise’s history, and the first black Head Coach of the Patriots. This move was unsurprising as it seemed Mayo was being groomed to replace Belichick, when the team shielded him from interviews during the previous wave of coaching hires last season. Mayo played under Belichick, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2008, led the NFL in tackles in 2010, and retired after the 2015 season. Mayo joined the Patriots coaching staff in 2019, and this does raise a major concern for the young coach. Belichick disciples have notoriously had bad track records out on their own. Just look at the Belichick coaching tree; Josh McDaniels (the less said about him the better), Nick Saban (NCAA legend but major NFL flop), Matt Patricia (his coaching incompetence is staggering), Bill O’Brien (better not show his face in Houston without a bullet proof vest), Al Groh (yeah you probably forgot/didn’t know about Groh’s lone season with the Jets), and the list goes on. One after another these coaches spread their wings, left Belichick’s nest, and were promptly shot out of the sky. The built-in “Buyer Beware” label aside, New England had a chance to really shake things up and change the culture in New England, but instead opted for a relic of the old regime.
7. Washington Hires Dan Quinn
This is a lateral move. The Washington Commanders, having finally solved the long standing Dan Snyder problem, have hired their their new Head Coach. After finishing the 2023 season with the 32nd ranked defense, on an 8-game losing streak, the 4-13 Commanders fired Ron Rivera. Rivera is a defensive-minded coach, with a career record of 102-103-2, a playoff record of 3-5, and lost Super Bowl 50 as the Head Coach of the Carolina Panthers. Who did they bring in to replace Rivera; Dallas Cowboys Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn. Quinn is a defensive-minded coach, with a career record of 43-42, a playoff record of 3-2, and lost Super Bowl LI when his Atlanta Falcons blew a 28-3 lead against the New England Patriots. Washington essentially replaced Rivera with a younger version of himself.
This was the most boring, unimaginative coaching hire of the 2024 cycle. Washington was originally planning to hire Detroit OC Ben Johnson, missing out on opportunities at other candidates while they waited for the chance to properly interview him. When Johnson left the Commanders at the alter, opting to “finish what he started” with HC Dan Campbell in Detroit, Washington was thrown into a tailspin. The last team standing, as far as coaching vacancies, still had options. The franchise under new ownership of Josh Harris had a talented young core, and around $70M of salary cap space. Bill Belichick was still available, though he may want the same power over personnel he was granted in New England, likely a deal-breaker. Mike Vrabel was available, for some ungodly reason. Eric Bieniemy, the OC, has had his name thrown around in coaching circles for what feels like forever now, yet was not promoted to HC. Nope, Washington took the nice safe boring option of hiring Dan Quinn. I would be remised if I didn’t point out that while Quinn is far more creative in drawing up defensive schemes, I don’t think he alone makes the team much better than Rivera. Better, yes. Much better? No. Let’s not forget in his “Last Dance” with Dallas, Quinn’s defense surrendered 48 points to Jordan Love’s Green Bay Packers.
6. Carolina Hires Dave Canales
First and foremost, good luck Mr. Canales, you will need it. David Tepper bought the team on a Tuesday, and like Tuesday the Panthers winning ways (11-5 the season before the sale) were gone with the wind. Tepper bought the Carolina Panthers from the franchise’s founder Jerry Richardson for $2.2 billion in 2018, and has seemingly spent just as much on coaches over the years. Ron Rivera, Perry Fewell (interim), Matt Rhule, Steve Wilkes (interim), Frank Reich, and Chris Tabor (interim) have all served as Head Coach of the Panthers over the last six years. Now Tepper rolls into his seventh season with his seventh coach. Of all the people the Panthers could have hired, the most intriguing candidate in my opinion was Senior Assistant Jim Caldwell. While teams may be turned off by his age (69 years old), Caldwell has experience in coaching, brining wins to Detroit prior to the Dan Campbell era. Carolina’s young franchise QB Bryce Young could learn a lot from Caldwell, who has coached Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford. Help for Young is what Carolina believes they have done as they hire Dave Canales.
What concerns me is the steep rise of Canales up the coaching ranks. Canales began his coaching career as an OC at Carson High School in California in 2004. He moved on to El Camino College in 2006, and served as the Assistant Strength Coach for USC in 2009, which is likely how he caught the eye of USC alum Pete Carroll. The former Trojan coach brought Canales onto his staff in 2010 at the age of 29. At the age that most running backs have nothing left in the tank, Canales (having never held a head coaching job in the amateur levels) had found his way onto the Seattle Seahawks coaching staff. From 2010 to 2022 Canales served a variety of offensive assistant roles, and was hired as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers OC in 2023. So how did Canales jump from assistant, to OC, to Head Coach so quickly? The answer is Baker Mayfield. The former number one overall pick was considered by many to be “washed”, but in Canales’ offense Mayfield had the best season of his career. Carolina is hoping he can pull that same magic trick on Bryce Young.
5. Tennessee Hires Brian Callahan
I was not in favor of the separation of employment of Mike Vrabel in Tennessee. Vrabel had a winning record in each of his first four seasons at the helm, but only boasted 13 wins in the last two seasons combined. Vrabel was let go after the Titans, with an aging roster, finished last in what was perceived to be a weak division, with three on-the-rise teams full of young stars. Tennessee has remained in no man’s land because they haven’t committed to contending or rebuilding, and Vrabel paid the price. It does look like the Titans have finally decided on a direction with this coaching change.
Tennessee identified Cincinnati Bengals Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan as their next Head Coach, at the ripe young age of 39. First-time HC Brian Callahan will be the seventh youngest coach in the NFL, which loosely translates to; HE IS INEXPERIANCED. Callahan does have an impressive, albeit short resumé though. Callahan served as an Offensive Assistant in Denver when Peyton Manning had the most statistically impressive season a quarterback has ever had. Callahan was the Quarterbacks Coach in Detroit in 2016 & 2017 when Matthew Stafford recorded the two highest QBR seasons of his career. To cap it off Callahan has done wonders with Joe Burrow under Zac Taylor in Cincy. Callahan will not have Manning, Stafford, or Burrow though. Will Levis is a raw young passer, but if Callahan can’t unlock his potential then the Titans are in trouble. If Derrick Henry does play for Tennessee next season then he will be 30 years old, and coming off the worst season of his career since 2018.
4. Atlanta Hires Raheem Morris
Arthur Smith had to go in Atlanta as he failed to utilize his best players properly and kept the franchise toiling in mediocrity. The decision to hire Raheem Morris instead of Bill Belichick was a bold move, and I commend the Atlanta Falcons for it. Morris just edges out Callahan for the #4 spot because he has the one thing Callahan doesn’t; experience. It was highly speculated that Belichick would be the next Head Coach of the Falcons after leaving New England, but it is uncertain what his demands would’ve been.
Morris got his first HC gig at the age of 33. He coached the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2009 to 2011, but only boasted one winning season out of three. Brought in as the Assistant Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons in 2015, he was promoted to Interim Head Coach in 2020 when Dan Quinn was fired following an 0-5 start. Morris now returns to Atlanta following a 3-year stint as Defensive Coordinator of the Los Angeles Rams. With a Super Bowl ring in hand, and a wealth of new knowledge, Morris gets another chance to prove himself as a Head Coach. Atlanta has the pieces in place to win the ever-pitiful NFC South with a strong showing in 2024.
3. Seattle Hires Mike Macdonald
Pete Carroll, the most energetic 72-year old man in the world, resigned as the Head Coach of the Seattle Seahawks. Carroll will remain in Seattle as an advisor, trading in his sideline view for a suite. What is interesting/fishy about this move is that the franchise presented it as a “mutual agreement”, but it seems more like Carroll, who notably did not retire, was forced out with one year left on his contract. Listening to his introductory press conference for his new role, Carroll does not sound like a man who is ready to give up coaching, essentially giving an “I have a lot left in the tank” speech. In any case, Seattle will move on from the oldest head coach in the NFL, to the youngest.
Mike Macdonald is only 36 years old, and will serve as the Head Coach of the Seattle Seahawks. Cutting his teeth as a Quality Control Coach at the University of Georgia, Macdonald began interning with the Baltimore Ravens in 2014. Briefly leaving Baltimore for the DC job at Michigan in 2021, Macdonald returned as the Ravens DC in 2022. These days everyone is following the Sean McVay blueprint, hiring the exciting young offensive coaches. Seattle went the other way by choosing a defensive coach to nurture their core of young studs such as Tariq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon, and Boye Mafe just to name a few. In his final year with the Ravens his defense ranked first in points allowed, and fifth in yards allowed.
2. Las Vegas Hires Antonio Pierce
The Las Vegas Raiders fired General Manager Dave Ziegler, fired Head Coach Josh McDaniels, and benched would-be star quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. After they cleaned house the Raiders won five of their last nine games to finish the 2023 season 8-9. Fourth round draft pick Aidan O’Connell was leaps and bounds better than Garoppolo in the Las Vegas offense, and Interim HC Antonio Pierce got the best out of his players. The Raiders were an unmitigated shit show under McDaniels, but Pierce was able to rally the troops in a way the franchise had been lacking for quite some time.
Generally when a coach is fired midseason and the interim gets results they gain a lot of fan support. Despite the swelling of support the franchise usually doesn’t keep them on as the new Head Coach, and they bring in somebody else. Most of the time this is the right move, but not always. When Dan Campbell first captured the attention of football fans, it was as the Interim Head Coach of the Miami Dolphins in 2015. I was a proponent of the Dolphins keeping the “players coach”, but instead they hired Adam Gase…yeah that aged well. I have the same belief that Antonio Pierce will succeed in Las Vegas as he has an undeniable chemistry with his players.
1. Los Angeles Hires Jim Harbaugh
The much anticipated return of Jim Harbaugh in the NFL, cue the trumpets. What an atrocious trainwreck of a season that saw the LA Chargers lose their franchise QB for the year, win one of their last nine games, and fire HC Brandon Staley after week 15. Short of SoFi Stadium being destroyed by an earthquake with the entire team inside…the season could not have gone worse for the Chargers. Staley, who came highly recommended as an “analytics guy” in 2021, should have been fired following the 2022 Wildcard loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars (you know, the one where they led 27-0 and still lost). Now the Chargers have tanked OC Kellen Moore’s Head Coach prospects, and waisted a year of Justin Herbert’s prime.
In comes Jim Harbaugh, who will look to right the ship in Los Angeles. Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011 to 2014, in his four seasons in San Francisco he never had a losing season and made it to a Super Bowl. Harbaugh was unjustly let go after butting heads with GM Trent Baalke (resisting the urge to go on a Baalke slander tangent). Harbaugh was 44-19-1 with the 49ers, and has since been coaching at his alma mater of Michigan. His Wolverines have gone 89-25 in nine seasons and won the 2023 National Championship. I have said for the past two years that the Chargers need an offensive-minded coach to help Herbert, and capitalize on his potential and short Super Bowl window. The way the offense has been run with Staley as the shot-caller has been appalling, but with quarterback guru Jim Harbaugh at the helm we should be seeing the best version of Justin Herbert.
